Which term describes the mistaken belief that a random event is more or less likely based on previous outcomes?

• A. Functional Fixedness
• B. Priming
• C. Framing
• D. Gambler's Fallacy

Answer: (D)

This question tests a bias about randomness where people think past results change the likelihood of future ones. The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that after a run of a certain outcome, the opposite outcome becomes more likely to “even things out.” In real randomness, each trial is independent and the probability stays the same from one event to the next. For example, a fair coin has a 50% chance of heads on every flip, regardless of how many heads or tails appeared before. This misleads people into betting more or less after losses or wins, hoping to balance the streak. The other terms aren’t about probability in this way: functional fixedness is about using objects only in their usual way; priming is about how exposure to one stimulus affects response to another; framing is about how presenting information influences judgment.